A Thai court has ordered the dissolution of the reformist party which won the most seats and votes in last year’s election - but was blocked from forming a government.

The ruling also banned Move Forward’s charismatic, young former leader Pita Limjaroenrat and 10 other senior figures from politics for 10 years.

The verdict from the Constitutional Court was expected, after its ruling in January that Move Forward’s campaign promise to change royal defamation laws was unconstitutional.

  • CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org
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    15 days ago

    but then why are we told that supply & demand “sets prices” when there is no evidence of, for instance, a shock to the system upsetting prices which then follow a standard supply & demand curve to restabilise?

    I feel like I’ve seen that in person. When the pandemic hit here, petrol prices hit the floor, like less than half of what they usually are. After a while they went back up as the production end was slowed down to match. So there’s evidence, albeit not evidence you can really fit a whole curve to.

    Well, because such a situation would not be “convex”, so economics has written an escape clause for this phenomenon whereby it can avoid ever making any real predictions about what the market will do in a situation that isn’t already “stabilised”.

    It could be convex. That’s not even an economics term, it’s math. In terms of gradient decent - like a market adjusting - it just means that the curves are “round” as opposed to having weird little pockets that it can get stuck in. A counterexample would be something where decreasing the price actually decreases sales, with Veblen goods being an obvious example - nobody would buy Gucci if it was just slightly more expensive than a normal bag. Graphed out, that looks like a hump in a curve (supplier profit, I think), until Gucci bags come out the other side where they’re cheap enough to compete as normal bags, as opposed to status items.

    It creates a “local minimum” where the market can stabilise (it usually is -ise in British spelling) in a way that’s counterproductive. You can talk about it in terms of second derivatives, too, but unless you’re actually crunching numbers the marginal change of marginal price is unintuitive and unhelpful.

    As you add more dimensions things get more complicated. Giffen goods happen when each good individually follows convex logic, but not when you rotate the resulting (hyper-)surfaces into a coordinate basis where cross elasticities become important. The math stays the same, though.

    And also, if it’s just short line segments, why is it fashionable to use a curve that implies more data than exists? Again, I would say that it is to ape the aesthetics of science without actually doing it.

    I mean, nobody’s ever observed a part of the Sombrero potential other than the very bottom, but Higgs theory doesn’t make sense without the rest. That on it’s own isn’t a point against economics, or QFT. In fact, the physics example is arguably more of a stretch, because it’s supposed to be precise, as opposed to just a model.

    You could critcise economics for only offering models, but that’s all of social sciences, and will be so for the foreseeable future.

    And it’s very strange that you turn to your personal anecdotal experience to say that you’ve “seen supply & demand play out”. If that were true, then you should be able to gather the data and present it. The fact that data doesn’t exist should tell you that you are probably using confirmation bias to evaluate your personal experiences.

    I expect someone has been recording it, actually. I suppose I’ll actually go looking out of respect for you.

    For instance, the housing market is something where ideally there would be very inflexible demand, because people don’t need more than one bed, typically.

    I know many people with a guest bedroom.

    Selling a property you can’t rent out is a pretty bad financial decision, you’re better off waiting until the housing market flips and it becomes a seller’s market again.

    Hah, no. Nearly as often the market will keep going the way you don’t want, and the whole time you’re not earning on your principle. Eventually, it has always gone up again, but there’s no time limit on that - look at Detroit - and if the population stops growing in your country real estate becomes deflationary for good. Meanwhile, if you had just put it in an index fund you’re going to earn 10% interest per year, on average. If you go bonds it might only be 4%, but it’s almost guaranteed.

    If you have literally any money saved, “don’t try to time the market” is the first thing that every advisor will tell you. It’s a dirty open secret that the big investors on wallstreet don’t actually beat the market, either.

    The reality of all markets is that they are subject to boom & bust cycles which supply & demand cannot account for.

    At the small scale, yes. The economy is noisy. There are also cases where it does bad stuff at the big scale, but they tend to correspond to nonconvexities.

    I’ll look into Australia when I have the time. I have to go pretty quick, though.

    And this is where the authors of that article talk about how orthodox economics institutions will launder heterodox theories. The point of doing this would be to maintain their prestigious position as the arbiter of all economics knowledge, as a result of which any damage such information might do to existing insitutions can be dampened by orthodox economists putting their own spin on the information. If they never acknowledge where the theory comes from, they get to rewrite it however they want.

    That sounds right.

    That’s distinctly unscientific.

    Cynical and unfair? Definitely. Unscientific? No, academics is pretty much always like that; hard sciences too. You think you get tenure just by being the most honest?

    Science itself is fine if worthy ideas make it to the top. Making the process fair is still a pipe dream. Gregori Perelman straight up refused the Abel Medal over this kind of shit.

    • Excrubulent@slrpnk.net
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      4 days ago

      My point about convexity being a handily-written escape clause was not to say that economists invented it out of whole-cloth, it’s to point out that it’s tautological. It’s basically saying, “Prices follow our law in all of the cases where they follow our law.” So it’s not a law then, is it? It’s an observation of extremely limited utility that just so happens to provide a justifying narrative: “our law says the market will be stable,” when we see the absolute opposite in many places.

      And if you feel like you’ve seen it in person, then again the data should exist. Again I’d say if you’re saying this is an example of the effect, without seeing the data, then you’re admitting out loud that you are just confirming your own preconcieved ideas rather than seeing any real evidence. These are statements of faith, not science. Orthodox economists would be proud.

      I’m not sure what you mean about the sombrero potential only being partially observed. It is a principle only, and you could observe it fully by simply making a sombrero shape and putting a ball in the middle and observing how it falls multiple times. That’s literally what the concept entails. It’s analogous to supply & demand in that the graphs are merely illustrative and it is only applicable in very specific situations. The difference is that supply & demand is presented as a foundational and ubiquitous law to high-school students, whereas the sombrero potential is presented honestly.

      As for the “don’t try to time the market” advice, if you’re right about that then someone should tell all the real estate speculators that are leaving extremely expensive real estate empty because they can’t rent it out and don’t want to sell at a low price. It would help our housing shortage immensely. Either they don’t exist, or your story about that isn’t complete.

      I don’t need you to look into Australia - price cycles and boom-bust cycles are well-documented economic phenomena. I linked an Australian case because I’m familiar with it.

      And to the extent that other sciences engage in politics over actual science, they are also being unscientific. However I’ve never heard of a scientific discipline where there is an “orthodox” school, except in economics. It’s the orthodox school that I have a problem with. Supply & demand is just emblematic of that issue.

      • CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org
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        4 days ago

        I’m not sure what you mean about the sombrero potential only being partially observed. It is a principle only, and you could observe it fully by simply making a sombrero shape and putting a ball in the middle and observing how it falls multiple times.

        You can see the model do that, but not the actual quantum fields. The transition is supposed to have happened irreversibly once in the instants following the big bang.

        The difference is that supply & demand is presented as a foundational and ubiquitous law to high-school students, whereas the sombrero potential is presented honestly.

        It was never taught where I went, but that could be. High school teachers should knock it off, if so. It seems to work exactly as theorised in most sectors, bulk commodities being a common example, but there’s definitely other sectors that are broken, some of which I mentioned.

        I’m a fan of regulation to address that. So are both orthodox and most heterodox schools, to various degrees.

        Either they don’t exist, or your story about that isn’t complete.

        I’m sure someone is dumb enough to try it, but I’m actually not convinced it’s widespread. In Canada, we literally just don’t have enough houses for a first-world nation of our population - which has been measured - and all of our tradespeople are swamped. (Sorry if I brought that up already, this has been a long-running thread)

        However I’ve never heard of a scientific discipline where there is an “orthodox” school, except in economics. It’s the orthodox school that I have a problem with. Supply & demand is just emblematic of that issue.

        Hmm, now that is a good point. There’s various small offshoots of anthropology and psychology, some of which are questionable (there’s people that still use Freud), but nobody really divides it up like that. Alright, you’ve sold me on economics probably having especially bad lab politics.

        • Excrubulent@slrpnk.net
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          2 days ago

          Right, so the quantum field model is designed to solve the assymetry paradox, but it’s just unconfirmed speculation. It’s a hypothesis, barely a theory, not a law. It’s discussed honestly for the most part, unlike the way orthodox economics discusses supply & demand. Just because you can find something roughly analogous in a hard science doesn’t make the problem substantively the same.

          And do you really think supply & demand isn’t taught as a law? We hear the phrase “the law of supply & demand” bandied about whenever anyone does any pop-economics. Do you seriously not encounter that?

          And you actually think housing speculation doesn’t happen on a wide scale? Like… what? Again, have you heard people talk about economics before? You said you understood a good amount of it, but you’re denying that housing speculation is real?

          https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/property-speculation-to-continue-boom-but-will-a-bust-follow
          https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26457/w26457.pdf

          The 2008 recession was literally a housing speculation bubble. I really don’t understand where you get off saying speculation isn’t a thing.

          Also, in Canada, your tradespeople are swamped but there are about 1.3 million empty houses.

          Here’s a quote that confirms what I just told you:

          Even more disturbing are the figures comparing vacant homes to the homeless population of a given country. While Canada ranks lower on this list at 13, it is still not a ranking that we should be proud of at all. It would take just 9% of the over 1.3 million vacant homes in Canada to give every homeless person in the country a place to live.

          Like sure, there might be a housing shortage in the market but not in reality. In reality it’s a hoarding problem. We know from the pandemic that governments could house everyone if they simply made it a policy priority, but they don’t.

          And as for the “lab politics” of economics, I’m glad you’ve been able to see that issue, and I think that’s a good term for it. The lab politics doesn’t come from nowhere. Sciences advance in a way that is exploitable by capital. When someone discovers a new kind of technology usually it can be turned into a profit. Often the details are obscured by charlatans looking to make a quick buck - see any tech hype cycle for an example of this - but interfering with the scientific process is usually going to be detrimental to the aims of capitalists.

          Social sciences are a little different, usually capital can kind of just ignore the policies proposed by social scientists, even if they can cause minor problems for them.

          For economics though, when someone like Marx comes along and points out that capitalists are stealing value from the working class and that working class can unite to overthrow their oppressors because in reality those oppressors create nothing and they depend on us, then that has real teeth. That causes problems, of the revolutionary variety. The ruling class has to respond to that, so they will use their influence to fund think tanks, sponsor economics departments that are friendly to them and torpedo institutions that say things they don’t like.

          Richard Wolff talks about this:

          Sure. I’m a product of the elite top of the American university system. I went to Harvard as an undergraduate. Then I went to Stanford in California to get my master’s degree. And then I went to Yale to get my Ph.D. So, by the normal standards of this profession, I’m the elite product of these institutions.

          I was always struck that as I went through these schools, studying history, politics, economics, sociology—the things that intrigued me—I was never required to read one word of Karl Marx. And I remember telling that to my father, who looked in stunned disbelief at the very possibility that an educated person going to such august universities would not be required to at least read people who are critical of the society, simply as a notion of proper education.

          https://www.democracynow.org/2013/3/25/watch_extended_interview_with_economist_richard_wolff_on_how_marxism_influences_his_work

          Just like kings used to, they have raised up their own class of priests to proclaim to the commoners that their power and wealth is justified and good, and we should all bow to their blessed interpretation of the mystical movements of the market. That’s why they don’t do science, and they quibble on the minutiae of the interpretations of long-dead texts, just like the priesthood did, because they can’t work in the realm of science, because it would destroy their entire project.

          • CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org
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            24 hours ago

            And you actually think housing speculation doesn’t happen on a wide scale? Like… what? Again, have you heard people talk about economics before? You said you understood a good amount of it, but you’re denying that housing speculation is real?

            Speculation happens, sure. I don’t buy that it drives things way out of equilibrium in the long run. As far as I can tell from a skim, neither do your sources.

            And do you really think supply & demand isn’t taught as a law? We hear the phrase “the law of supply & demand” bandied about whenever anyone does any pop-economics. Do you seriously not encounter that?

            I also hear about “Murphy’s law”, which is self-evidently not (literally) true in all cases. If you’re teaching an actual Econ 101-type course and you don’t mention market failure, you’re teaching it badly.

            The 2008 recession was literally a housing speculation bubble.

            Not exactly. A drop in housing prices triggered it IIRC, but the actual chain of dominoes played out on paper in financial instruments.

            In an ideal market the big banks would have just been replaced with new ones who take less risks of that sort, but they were too big to fail. That’s definitely a problem, but I don’t really know enough to comment on what the fix should be intelligently; banking economics is on a whole other level.

            Also, in Canada, your tradespeople are swamped but there are about 1.3 million empty houses.

            The total shortfall is in the neighborhood of 3.5 million units.

            There’s always some, just because people move unpredictably - a “frictional” amount. I’m sure someone somewhere is sitting on an empty house for no good reason, but they’re losing money, so I doubt it’s a lot by comparison to the frictional amount.

            Homeless people aren’t let in for a really sad reason that has nothing to do with necessity: few voters care and nonprofits can’t raise enough money - or alternately donated space - without government help. A lot of those people have “high needs”, and are at risk of causing damage or just leaving a mess, so it’s not like it’s free to let them stay in a building until the next tenant shows up.

            The lab politics doesn’t come from nowhere. Sciences advance in a way that is exploitable by capital. When someone discovers a new kind of technology usually it can be turned into a profit. Often the details are obscured by charlatans looking to make a quick buck - see any tech hype cycle for an example of this - but interfering with the scientific process is usually going to be detrimental to the aims of capitalists.

            Capitalism is neither necessary nor sufficient for politics. Look at the USSR and all the various times they flip-flopped on whatever issue or person. Or Republican Spain and it’s many warring factions, if that’s more your idea of non-capitalism.

            It’s true that some scientists are on the hook to say things convenient for a sponsor. The nice thing is that a valid observation will stand the test of time regardless of who makes it. Marx made a huge impact on social sciences, and you don’t have to agree with him on any particular thing (left or right wing - he was still a Victorian white man) to appreciate economics as a driver of history. The same goes for marginalism and friends.