I wouldn’t exactly claim 2% polling gains as a big victory, tbh.
I check fivethirtyeight and 270towin pretty often and it hasn’t changed much in the last 6 months. Still dystopian.
I wouldn’t exactly claim 2% polling gains as a big victory, tbh.
Its preferable to the 5-pt lag he was suffering a month ago. But nothing to brag about. Hillary squandered a 10-pt lead in the month before the general election, as the media turned into a “Buttery Males” feeding frenzy.
Polls don’t matter, especially this far out.
Vote. Put pressure on politicians to do better. But more than anything. Vote.
If the polls say he’s 100% going to win. Vote. If you’re in a state that goes blue every time for the last 100 years. Vote. If you’re in a state that goes red every time for the last 100 years. Vote.
I see people saying their vote doesn’t matter when they’re in a highly partisan district, which is most of them.
News flash: Even the dumbest politicians can look at arithmetic. If they see their margins shrinking, they’ll adjust. Or go full retard and double-down. And then get a worse beating.
Also local elections can be decided by one vote and can be just as important.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-05-01/ca-16-results-recount-tk-tk
Five votes. In a district of 735,000 people.
After trading leads several times, Simitian and Low each finished with 30,249 votes in the original tally, which was finalized earlier this month, shortly before the recount began. Liccardo finished with 38,489 votes, well ahead of the other two candidates.
So the two runners-up were competing for who gets to lose in a run-off election?
The attacks reached a fever pitch late last month, when a local prosecutor filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission alleging that Liccardo’s campaign illegally coordinated with “a newly formed dark money Super PAC to do his CD-16 recount bidding.”
:-/ It’s not the votes that count, but who counts the votes.
I see people saying their vote doesn’t matter when they’re in a highly partisan district
I see people saying it when they’re in heavily gerrymandered districts and deeply disenfranchised states. Dems have been playing the “Just go out and vote!” game in Florida for a quarter century, and Repubs keep finding new ways to yank the football. Even ballot initiatives don’t work, as the Florida gerrymandered legislature just reverses out whatever voting rights or decriminalization laws the public passes.
Okay, then protest. And also VOTE.
Throwing your hands up in the air saying “voting doesn’t work so I’m not going to do anything” is just allowing them to dictate everything that will happen.
Okay, then protest.
Throwing your hands up in the air saying “voting doesn’t work so I’m not going to do anything”
Studying the history of the electoral system and the patterns of disenfranchisement isn’t equivalent to “doing nothing”. And in the end, you have to be rational rather than idealistic. When Vladimir Putin is counting the votes, you’re not going to vote him out of office.
When Vladimir Putin is counting the votes, you’re not going to vote him out of office.
Russians that literally live under Vladimir Putin risk their lives to protest. You have politicians that you admit want to become the next Putin but won’t say anything or of fear of pepper spray.
There’s an internet meme about France surrendering. French politicians try to increase the retirement age and the population takes to the streets. American politicians try to take away your democracy and American citizens just roll over to expose their belly.
It’s not the French that surrender at the slightest bit of difficulty.Russians that literally live under Vladimir Putin risk their lives to protest.
So do American college kids.
French politicians try to increase the retirement age and the population takes to the streets.
French politicians have been squeezing the pension system since at least 2006, and the street protests have come and gone without discouraging new efforts to dismantle the system.
Bully to them for trying, but without material control over industry, they’re all sound and fury.
Polls always matter, you just have to understand polls.
This is with third party options and show Biden up 2% which is probably close to margin of error.
It doesn’t mean Biden has it in the bag, but it means his chances are improved.
But Biden risks the same dangers Hillary did in 2016.
People don’t really want to vote for them, they just don’t want trump. So there’s a risk if Biden is polling too well (I don’t think it will be an issue) people will stay home thinking they don’t need to compromise their morals because trump will lose.
It’s a dangerous game, and we wouldn’t have to play it if we ran a candidate popular with Dem voters.
So there’s a risk if Biden is polling too well (I don’t think it will be an issue) people will stay home thinking they don’t need to compromise their morals because trump will lose.
That’s largely how Romney lost to Obama in 2012. Republican turnout sagged in a year when both candidates’ approval ratings were underwater. Mitt lost a bunch of midwestern states that a candidate like Bush or Trump could have won, thanks to his vulture capitalist career alienating blue-collar conservatives and his weird knock-off religion alienating evangelicals.
Why the fuck is Trump even able to run? He’s literally a fucking criminal, and was impeached. I dont understand how our political system or even judicial systems work at this point.
Why the fuck is Trump even able to run?
Because nobody is actually stopping him. Republican state level leaders all love him. Dems are too terrified to threaten him with more than a wrist slap. The police are in his corner. Big Business is bankrolling him. The Media keeps accidentally falling face first onto his dick. And 1:3 Americans still insist he’s better than The Other Guy.
So he’s still listed on all the ballots. He’s still the GOP’s nominee. And if he wins the lion’s share of electoral college votes (by hook or by crook) he’s going to be the President in January.
This is a big deal. I’m extremely excited to get a look into these data. This would be an INCREDIBLE thing considering that Biden has been lagging Trump in the polls for over 450 days.
And whoever tells you polls don’t matter has their head up their ass. Polls do matter, a lot, especially this far out. People aren’t a monolith. People do change their minds and perspectives.
Apparent viability matters. Even a 2-5% hit in polling to Trump can take him from the range of viable to non-viable.
And yes, polling is flawed. In 2016 and 2020, the polling massively underestimated support for Trump. We need to keep this in mind when we look at these numbers,.
Keeping in mind that the trajectory of Bidens polling was into the carpet, pretty much since the inauguration.
If Biden can shift this towards an upward trend, he’s suddenly back in the game. Thats a sea change. Thats huge.
Polls matter a lot when they start moving. There are plenty of people who pay no attention at all to news or politics. and those people are slowly finding out that Trump is now a convicted felon and may soon be wearing an orange jumpsuit.
No matter how the “Law and Order” GQP attacks the American Criminal Justice System, western societies have centuries of experience dealing with convicted felons. It is a stain that won’t wash out.
Agreed. I’m holding back to do any real analysis of this for about 10 more days.
People love to say polls suck, they don’t mean anything, its total none-sense, etc. Interestingly its always when their candidate is losing.
Now that these polls are shifting, my guess is the dorks who can’t tell up from down start shifting their stories, and soon after that, they’ll be pretending it was always their view.
Polls are important, especially in terms of this far out, and especially in-terms of the ‘appearance’ of electability. These are the weeks and months where momentum builds. A sudden breakout, or sudden drop in polling numbers is extremely consequential.
